This league is so cyclical.

Denver's team is too.  Denver hasn't seen a youth movement like it is seeing this season since the mid-eighties.  In the early to mid-eighties (1983-1987) Denver was really good too but a lot of folks forget that because they were a young and wild team and didn't win a playoff game until 1986. With a truly young team, Denver won 9 games in 1983, 13 games in 1984, and 11 games in 1985.  We all know how 1986 and 1987 turned out.

Denver is young and wild again.  Denver's defense isn't a good unit...yet.  They're not the worst unit in the game but they're not very good.  They can improve.  They have talent.  They'll add talent in years to come.  Oh, and one more thing, the defense isn't the scapegoat for the Chiefs loss.  That falls squarely on the shoulders of 3 people:

1) Jay Cutler. 2) Brandon Marshall. 3) Eddie Royal.

They know it too. Truth is, they're shrugging it off.  And they should.  They're young.  They are going to make mistakes.  Nobody goes undefeated (except for the Pats but they ended up losing the one game that really counted).  Marshall's fumble was bad and served up 7 points on a platter to the Chiefs.  Marshall even admitted after the game that he should have been where Cutler threw his second interception, if not there for the reception but to knock the ball away from the defender.  Royal's fumble wasn't as bad but killed any possibility of the offense getting into rhythm.  The Denver receivers definitely found out that the rest of the league thinks they are careless with the ball.  Turnovers lose games.  Four in one game all but guarantee a loss.

Cutler played his Elway card on Sunday.  He was erratic and more inaccurate than usual.  But do you know why?  It's because he felt like he had to win the game all by himself.  Why wouldn't he feel that way?  The defense wasn't going to win it.  The running game wasn't going to suddenly dominate the line of scrimmage.  Sound familiar?  Ask John Elway if he felt like that when the mid 80's Broncos were young and wild. 

Cutler forced passes.  Even the TD pass to Marshall in the 2nd Quarter was forced.  Cutler kept going to Marshall because Marshall makes plays and Denver needed a few.  Truth is, Marshall did make a few plays but the Chiefs had two to three players around Marshall even when he was able to get open.  When Cutler finally resigned himself to taking what the defense gave him, Denver was able to move the ball with short passes to Royal and Stokley.  But it was too little, too late.  Only a special teams miracle would have netted a win, but alas, Spence Larsen played defense in college for a reason: he can't catch.

Is it okay to simply shrug your shoulders over this loss?  Yep.  Sure is.  First of all, it's just a game.  Second of all, these guys are 25, 23, and 22.  Elway threw LOTS of interceptions when he was 25 (He threw 23 INTs to 22 TDs).  Thirdly, the defense will improve.  Not to an elite level but to a serviceable level. Brandon Marshall is one of the best runners in the game after the catch.  Yet there are at least a few times during the game when you cringe because he's carrying the ball like a loaf of bread.  And Eddie Royal has played in four games in the NFL.  That's it: four games. 

They get the benefit of the doubt.  They have three tough games upcoming.  They could win all three.  They might lose all three.  But you can be sure of one thing: Cutler and his boys are learning on the job.  Jay will learn that he needs to be more patient.  It's going to take him a few more years, not a few more weeks, but he will progress.  Marshall and Royal will learn to cover the ball up when they turn up field.  Again though, it'll take years, not weeks.  Be patient.  It'll be worth it.  It was in 1984.

The Broncos are 2-0.  They lead the NFL in offense.  They lead the NFL in scoring. Denver though, is a young team still learning how to put games away and win in tough situations.

The following list isn’t meant to be a buzz-kill, it is meant to highlight things that have developed during the last two games and things that prior to the season starting, are points that most of us would have pegged as "something to watch" on Sundays.  Let’s take a look at our progress.

Good News:

Red Zone Scoring

Albeit a small sample size (2 games), the Broncos have not only improved but imposed their will in the Red Zone.  They have scored a TD 80% of the time (8 of 10 trips) they’ve reached the Red Zone this season.  Last season, they scored a TD 49% of the time. Denver has scored 4 TD’s through the air and 4 TD’s on the ground (in the Red Zone – Denver has 2 other passing TD’s that came from outside 20 yards).  Last season, Denver scored 10 rushing TD’s total and one of those was Cutler’s.  Denver hasn’t been above the 60% TD mark since 2005, when they earned a shot to play for the Super Bowl.  Denver is ranked #2 in the NFL in TD percentage so far in 2008.

Bad News:

2 (potential) Red Zone turnovers in the last 5:30 

Lost in the adulation that comes from winning the first ESPN Classic game of the 2008 season is the fact that Denver’s star QB turned the ball over twice in the final minutes of the game on arguably the two most important offensive drives of the game.  Cutler tried to get the ball to Eddie Royal on 3rd and 3 from the 4 yard line.  Royal darted in, then up field into the back of the endzone, but Cutler floated the ball to where Royal would have been had he stopped or slowed his route on the "in" portion.  It was a miscommunication, a poor pass, or both.  It led to a touchdown and 2 point conversion for the Chargers.  On the following drive, we all know what happened.  The ball was slick but the bottom line is that it was fumbled and Cutler and Denver were the beneficiaries of a misjudgment by a referee.  Not to say Cutler had a bad game. He threw the ball 50 times; 48 of those times he was just about perfect.  The fumble was a freak play that frankly, you can NOT blame on the young QB.  These things happen.  BUT, the interception is a huge play and Jay needs to either run or throw that ball away.  I felt as though he twisted during his throwing motion indicating to me that he knew he didn’t want to throw that ball or that he tried to change the speed, trajectory, or target of his throw mid-way through his motion.  We need to remember that this is his second season and it won’t come without heartburn at times.

Good News:

DJ Williams, Champ Bailey, Dre Bly, and Boss Bailey

These guys are all playing very well on a much maligned defense.  How many times did you hear Dre Bly’s name on Sunday?  Boss Bailey?  Champ had Chris Chambers covered but (although it’s killing me to say it) Phillip Rivers made a gorgeous throw and hit Chambers in stride, just over the outstretched arms of Champ.  Other than that, Champ was locked in, played well, and as always, tackled just about everyone that came near him in the running game.  DJ Williams is starting to get noticed again.  He is playing with confidence, speed, and maybe most importantly, decisiveness.  He was everywhere on Sunday afternoon.  Anytime someone got the ball in the backfield, you saw a number 55 chasing him down or filling a gap or shedding a blocker.  San Diego runs weakside more than any team in the NFL.  DJ Williams plays weakside linebacker.  San Diego picked up 80 yards on the day and Tomlinson only accounted for 26 of them on 10 carries.

Bad News:

Jarvis Moss, Karl Paymah

Jarvis Moss has been inactive for the entire 2008 season.  Okay that sounds more dramatic than it is but for both games played, Moss has been out of pads. All I can say in his defense is both teams Denver's played are rushing oriented teams. However, a 1st round pick cannot be inactive for consecutive games in just his second year.  If he his, then he’s either hurt or a bust.  He’s not hurt and therefore must be a bust.  The only way Moss contributes at this point seems to be if he becomes a specialty 3rd down pass rusher.  Who knows, maybe because the Saints can’t run the ball Moss will get lots of playing time this week.  Unless he makes an impact in the first half of this season, and a noticeable impact at that, I can’t imagine Denver will keep him on the roster.  I’d rather put new talent that fits the scheme in the lineup than talent that doesn’t fit the scheme.  Karl Paymah is Denver’s #3 corner but he was Phil Rivers’ #1 target.  Paymah looked overmatched and out of position all day.  He didn’t look confident.  The only thing I noticed is that he was  playing off the WR at the snap and giving a short to medium zone to the WR and protecting himself from a the deep pass (his Achilles heel as a pro).  He was misjudging routes and timing.  People like to bring up Foxworth here but Foxworth made the same mistakes Paymah did except Foxworth is 2 inches smaller and 20 lbs lighter than Paymah.  I’ll still take Paymah, but he must improve and fast.  He will be tested this week by Drew Brees who is a smarter, more accurate version of Rivers.

Good News:

The RBs, WRs, TEs

It’s no secret already in the 2008 season that Eddie Royal, Brandon Marshall, and Brandon "Slot Machine" Stokley are the best WR corps in the NFL.  They are, two games in, this season’s version of Moss, Welker, and Stallworth.  Everyone’s two questions were: 1) Is Eddie Royal ready for a starting job and able to compete at the highest level against the best talent on a consistent basis and 2) can Brandon Marshall pick up where he left off last season?  The answers were both a resounding YES!  Royal dominated the Oakland Game and caught the (potential) game winning TD on Sunday as well as the game winning 2-Point conversion.  Marshall on the other hand, leads the NFL in receptions but has only played one game.  He came up two receptions short of T.O.’s NFL record of 20 in one game with his 18 receptions.  The RBs have been as advertised, maybe a little better.  The Broncos RBs are on pace for 32 TDs this season.  While we know that won’t happen, Michael Pittman has proven he can get yards when it counts.  Andre Hall and Selvin Young have also done their part picking up tough yards but also gashing the defense in this new pass-first offense that Denver has employed.  The TEs are all seeing the ball but as expected, Tony Scheffler already has 2 TDs and a per catch average over 15 yards per reception.  He’s been flexed out with regularity.  Dan Graham has been utilized differently this year and has caught a few balls this season as well.  He has been in motion a lot this season as evidenced by playing from five different spots on the first five plays vs. the Chargers. 

Bad News:

Kick Coverage

This is obvious.  Specifically, Kickoff returns.  Prater must find a way to get more touchbacks out of his leg.  Denver’s personnel on kickoffs has changed a lot already this season because of injuries to Louis Green and Hamza Abdullah but it’s not an excuse for letting Darren Sproles average nearly 39 yards per kickoff return and bring one back for a TD.  Against the lowly Raiders, Johnnie Lee Higgins averaged almost 26 yard per return but almost brought one back, being corralled by Champ Bailey well into Broncos’ territory.  You would think with Niko, Larsen, and some of the young athletes that Denver sports, that the kick coverage unit would be physical and dominant but that is not the case.  There have been huge, gaping holes in the middle of the field for returners to find in each of the two games this season.  This problem must be solved or Denver will be giving away at least a field goal once a game this season.

Good News:

Kickers

Matt Prater has exceeded expectations.  He nailed a 52 yarder on Sunday and would have been the goat of the game had he missed the kick.  The last time I heard Jason Elam’s name uttered by a Broncos fans was my fantasy draft and that’s a very good thing for Matt Prater.  Brett Kern has also been good but not spectacular.  He’s put the ball where Denver wants it but needs to work on NOT outkicking his coverage. He’s netting over 40 yards a punt.  He’s punted five times; two have been kicked inside the opponent’s 20.  The average punt return is 4.5 yards and he’s grossing 48.2 yards a kick.  I’m impressed.

Bad News:

Pass defense

We saw Oakland players get open a handful of times on misdirection plays targeting Denver’s aggressive and fast LB’s and Safeties.  But, we saw San Diego absolutely punish Denver’s secondary to the tune of 377 yards and 3 TDs on 33 attempts.  Who’s to blame and what’s to fix? Problem number one is the pass rush.  Where was it?  Denver sacked Rivers only one time and didn’t really pressure him into many bad throws.  Denver played nickel and dime most of the game and only rushed three in the late 3rd and 4th quarters but that’s no excuse.  At some point, Denver needs to bring more pressure at the risk of sacrificing big plays, which they were giving up with regularity anyway.  They had nothing to lose by bringing an overload blitz on Rivers, who isn’t a speedy player.  But they never did it.  Denver is going to have to adjust their strategy.  Again, Brees will test these guys this Sunday.  The difference is that Denver sold out to the run for most of the Charger game and will not do so against New Orleans.  Denver needs to find a way to get pressure SOME of the time because right now they are getting pressure NONE of the time.

Good News:

Pass offense

I’ll make this one quick.  Denver is the #1 offense in the NFL after 2 weeks.  The Oakland game was a gimme (not that we knew that then), but San Diego’s defense is no slouch.  The Oakland and San Diego cornerbacks are 4 of the top 15 or so corners in the league.  That hasn’t stopped Denver’s dynamic set of pass catchers from mauling them physically and statistically.  Denver is #2 in the NFL in pass yards per game (Philly).  They are #10 in rush yards per game (not bad!), but Denver has thrown for more TD’s than any other team except for the Chargers (see above).  Cutler’s rating is 118.6.  The offensive line has NOT allowed a sack this season (technically they have – the 4th quarter fumble by Cutler that was ruled an incomplete pass counted as a team sack for San Diego).  They have protected Cutler and done an amazing job getting their teammates time to execute.  The field personnel aren’t the only group doing its part though, the coaches have stepped up as well.  Mike Shanahan and Jeremy Bates have set their opponents on their collective ear.  The play calling has been innovative and the results have been extraordinary.  The players really seem to be having fun and Cutler, Marshall, Royal, and Scheffler all seem to be on the cusp of stardom.

If the Chargers were a stock, would you buy, sell, or hold

They lost in Week 1 (0-1).  The defense allowed Jake Delhomme, fresh off of Tommy John Surgery, to complete 8-11 passes on a two-minute drill to win the game.  It was a game played in San Diego, the Chargers' home record is 0-1 so far in 2008.  They must travel to Denver and face the Broncos who dismantled Oakland in Oakland last week.  Although the Raiders weren't expected to win, it was expected to be a competitive game.  Oakland is obviously less competitive than originally thought, but Denver is obviously more competitive than originally thought.

San Diego is having some personnel issues as it pertains to injuries.  Take a look at their offseason activity in free agency and the draft.  They really didn't do much to help themselves as far as depth goes.  There are very notable names on the right side of the column as well as the FA's lost column.

San DIego is still a very formidable team, they have players like Jyles Tucker, albeit untested, who could potentially step up in the wake of Merriman's loss.  Rivers played very well in Week 1.  LT will be starting on Sunday.  Luis Castillo and Jamal Williams will also be starting on what was a very solid defensive unit in 2007.

They play a 1st place schedule butu are widely thought of as the top team in the AFC West, and a contender to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

The San Diego Chargers also have a cool, new logo:

Would you buy, sell, or hold the Chargers if they were a stock?

Last week, Denver basically dared the Raiders to try and win the match up game in the air with a TE or slot WR versus a S or LB, because Denver was playing in a base run defense on anything resembling a running down.  There was no reason to get cute with overages or even disguise them.  Denver wanted Russell dropping back or rolling out to pass the ball.  Any head coach worth his salt would have tried a few plays out of bunch and flexing the TE out in order to maximize a potential personnel mismatch, and Kiffin did so.  The raiders did that on a few occasions, and a few of those times, it actually worked but they couldn't execute and complete the pass.

         I think the Broncos defense played very well against a team that really does have a good running game.  Now, it's not Chargers good, but it’s good.  Versus the Chargers, I expect to see Boss Bailey on Gates and at one safety playing over the top (McRee).  I expect to see 8 in the box with press corners and lots of run blitzes.  Rivers doesn't have enough mobility to avoid even Robertson, so if anyone gets back there and there's no RB to tangle with, Rivers will have to hurry the ball out of the backfield.  Denver will get scored on next week, and I expect Denver to give up a few TDs and a few FGs.  From what I saw last week versus Carolina, I honestly don't think the Chargers can score with the Broncos.  I think the coaching staff for the Broncos is taking this game extremely seriously.  We'll see some creative plays again, and I think Shanny, Cutler, and Bates will be making the Chargers safeties and linebackers really work on the first few series, chasing Royal and Young and Hall and Stokely and Scheffler and Jackson and Marshall all over the place.

        San Diego has owned Denver for 4 games, and especially the last 2.  But Denver has a different offensive philosophy this year.  They are passing more than running.  Denver's mix of plays and players on the field at any given time is far different from what it has been for the last few seasons.  I think the teams are fairly evenly matched and I think Denver has closed the gap or maybe even caught up to San Diego from a talent perspective (at least on offense and if you mix in San Diego's injuries, Denver's darn close).  The difference makers will be the players' ability to NOT make mistakes and the head coaches' game plans.

        Denver's defense will come into this game with two goals:  1) Bottle up LT and 2) Hit Rivers.  The first point is obvious.  The second point is that Rivers is not 100 percent.  He's still hurt, and after hits, he's playing extra gimpy and throwing off of one foot.  I thought last week that he looked uncomfortable in the pocket after being hit.  I think Denver will try and make him run for his life and if he does get a pass off, he's going to have to pick himself up off of the grass.  I think this plan puts Denver at risk for long screen plays (a Charger staple), but at least the Denver LBs are fast enough and good enough tacklers to pull these guys down without a jailbreak happening a few times.

       The Chargers, I would assume, will be blitzing with their ends and LBs in the first quarter to put Jay on his back and blow up any running plays in front of them behind the LOS.  In my opinion, I don’t think that the Charger CBs match up at all with the Denver WRs, and I can’t imagine the LBs can run with Scheffler or Young.  So, if Cutler has time, the Chargers are cooked, but if they can have a somewhat consistent pass rush, they can change Denver’s play calling and make it more conservative.

This is just a wild guess, and it's fun to speculate, so here goes, and wouldn't you think Denver could throw in a few drives with a hurry-up offense?  We'll see, but Shanny's got something up his sleeve, I'm sure of it; the magic's BACK, baby:

       In the end, this is Denver’s home opener.  The crowd will be electric.  Denver fans will be ferocious.  They haven’t felt like they will feel on Sunday at 2:00 pm since January of 2005.  It will be a sea of crisp, bright orange and navy blue with bright white number fifteens and sixes and sevens, maybe even a few eighty-eights and fifty-fives.  The noise that will rain down on the Charger offense will be absolutely deafening and soaked in contempt for this bitter rival. The offensive linemen wearing white helmets will, without a doubt, have a hard time hearing the snap count.  Denver and their coaches will certainly want to give the fans what they want early and often and I expect every page of that playbook to be available this week just like I expect a few overload-blitzes or a blitzing Marquand Manuel sneaking up behind the decreasingly mobile Phillip Rivers.

GO BRONCOS

Holy crap, the AFC is in for a weird season.

Jacksonville, Indy, and San DIego lose their games, but the worst loss of Week 1 was New England's.  The thought of Tom Brady's ACL tear before the season would have caused nausea in any Pats fan, but the sight of it actually happening in the first quarter was nauseating for any football fan.  Look, I was very sick and tired of the TMZ style coverage the Pats got in 2007, but this isn't just karma balancing out, it's just plain awful.  The Pats can still win 10 or games this year, seeing as how their coaching staff will take this on as a challenge, and the team has a chance to really respond and play for Tom, not just themselves.  Their schedule (easiest in 2008 based on 2007 results) should also help them, although both the Jets and Bills looked much improved. 

If you are Carl Peterson (Chiefs owner/GM), how in THE HELL are you okay with the QB situation.  Looking back, KC hasn't had a QB since Joe Montana.  In fact, I don't know if KC has EVER drafted a QB that did anything in the NFL.  Even Len Dawson (drafted by Pittsburgh) was on the scrap heap in the early 1960's when he ended up with the (then) Texans.  Its amusing that as soon as the Pats or Ravens need a QB, they call up Chris Simms and a few others.  If Croyle or Huard were on the list of FA QB's, would they even get a phone call from New England or Baltimore.  Doubt it.  It has to be frustrating as a KC fan to watch your team play and know that even the young guys are scrap heap guys.  Only Dewayne Bowe and Tony Gonzales are worth watching on that offense, and Bowe played terribly against the Pats.  He dropped at least 3 catchable balls, a few of which were sure-fire fist downs and one was a pass that hit him in the hands that would have won the game.  He also made a lackluster effort on the game's final play.  That team needs a few more drafts like last year's before they're even going to sniff a .500 record.

The Jets looked very good on offense and very bad on defense.  Miami turned that game into a semi-shootout.  Miami is better than they were last year, but they were 1-15 last year.  The Jets are very excited about the buzz they have with their new offense, but their defense was bad against a porous offense with Chad Pennington and Sticky-icky Ricky Williams headlining.  The Jets have plenty of time to improve,  but Mangini need to get ahold of that defense.  Vernon Gholston has NO CLUE what he's doing.  Mangini's defense needs to take a page from Bob Slowik's and just slow it down, make it simpler.

I didn't see the Jacksonville game, but my fears about David Garrard came to fruition.  He's overrated.  He's a good QB, but not a great one.  He is a Trent Dilfer/Jeff Garcia type.  When the Titans dared him to beat them, he couldn't.  The Jags' O-line played sloppy and couldn't get their vaunted running game going at any point.  Oh, by the way, Cortland Finnegan jerseys may outsell Vince Young jerseys this year.  I know Vince might miss a few games in the next few weeks, but maybe he should rest that knee in the film room.  He looks like he can't digest an NFL playbook or read a defense, let alone pass a Wunderlich test (on the first try, at least).

The Indianapolis game was a real eye opener. Peyton looked very rusty and Addai was banged up at the end of the game.  Harrison has the fumbles and the only reliabe hands seemed to be Wayne last night.  They looked out of sync and they need to get Manning, Wayne, Gonzalez, Addai, and Harrison a lot more reps together ASAFP. Now, the Bears defense looks like it's for real, but the Colts offense doesn't.  I have to think they'll right that ship, but they don't look like the Colts I'm used to seeing.  The Colts defense, which was underrated for the past year, is not underrated any longer.  Matt Forte, a rookie, and Kyle Orton, another guy the Pats wouldn't call, made the Colts defense look like a 2nd team defense.  Dungy and his boys can do way better that what happened last night.  I think it's his last year too, by the way.

The Chargers looked weird.  Rivers kinda looked good, but was hobbling around in the 4th Quarter.  I thought they had that game won, but their defense was brutal in that game.  LT looked like he ran hard, but had a hard time finding room to run in.  I also thought that Gates looked pretty good even though his fumble and subsequent Carolina TD runback, was probably the defining paly of the game.  But somehow, the Chargers didn't win.  They are 0-1 at home already this season, and now have to go on the road and play a divisional grudge match against a team that has been eyeing them since 2006.  If they start 0-2, and Denver starts 2-0, Denver absolutely has the inside track on the AFC West considering their schedules.  I think the Chargers' pass defense looked very sloppy and I was surprised to see Delhomme picking the Chargers apart at times during the game.  I was also surprised to see the Chargers' offensive and defensive lines getting dominated a times during the game as well.  Carolina has some very physical guys on either lines, but I didn't expect to see Carolina pushing the Chargers around a little.

The Bills looked like the second best AFC team yesterday.  How upset are Jags fans that they didn't lock up Marcus Stroud.  Stroud and Kawika Mitchell completely destroyed Seattle.  Trent Edwards is much imporved, but Marshawn Lynch could have a HUGE season in Buffalo.  I even saw Lee Evans sprinting down the sidelines reeling in over the shoulder passes.  I didn't think the Bills were that good.  Well, maybe Seattle is that bad, or maybe Homgren should have hung it up last year.  He didn't have that team ready to play.

Pittsburgh looked good and Houston looked bad.  Willie Parker looked great and Houston looked overmatched.  Houston could be in for a long season, but they can also learn from their outing and improve.  They have great talent, they just need to maximize what they have.  They need to play their game, not the opposition's.  Pittsburgh looked like the best team in the AFC yesterday.  They brought it to the Texans and really dominated for most of the game.  Big Ben looks like he has the eye of the tiger this year.

I didn't see any of the Cincinnati game, but that was on purpose.  They are a train wreck.  They should be coach shopping as we speak.  Flacco outplayed Palmer.  Wow.  If I live in Ohio, all my eggs are in Ohio State's basket for this year and even they're about to lose to USC this weekend.  Cleveland is another game I can't comment on because I didn't watch much of it, but from what I read, their revamped D-line was overmatched and gave Romo way too much time to throw.

Last but not least, Denver has their chance to give us our first glimpse of what to expect in 2008.  My only advice is: STOP THE RUN.  You do that vs. Oakland, you win.  If you stop the run and lose versus Oakland, one of two things has happened: 1) JaMarcus Russel is a phenom having a breakout season or 2) your team sucks.

GO BRONCOS.

Originally, I wanted to start a thread along the lines of Love Letter to MHR.  But I'm in a crappy mood.  Two reasons: 1) I have to wait 5 more nights until the Broncos and Raiders kick off on Monday night, and 2) I am literally at the point of nausea over coverage of the NFL by both the national and local media. Lately, it occurs to me (stole that from Jerry Garcia), that sportswriters and "analysts" are more terrified of being wrong than Donald Rumsfeld during the WMD fisaco.

Is it any surprise that sports personalities that are brash, brazen, and willing to really go out on a limb for what they believe are ushered into the national spotlight, SI's back page, or asked to host Jim Rome's radio show during one of Rome's 142 off-days a year? No. It's not.  It's because everybody else is the same.  Sure, maybe one guy is more analytical or funny than another guy, but when push comes to shove and these guys are asked to really talk about what they think in an upcoming game, they all crack and take the easy way out. 

My axe to grind isn't so much with the guys like Bill Williamson or Peter King (who aren't without fault).  They are "reporters".  Yes, they weave their opinion into their articles at times, but their articles are there to tell you; sales guy in a cube on the internet, tax attorney reading the paper, or marketing production gal on her iphone, what is happening in the NFL, either with your team or the whole league.  For the most part  (discounting King's NYJ/NYG/NE slant), they do that, and they do it with a great deal of accuracy.  Why, because they are reporting facts or insight.  That's it.  Feel free to read these "reporters'" articles with an open mind. Let these guys tell you what is happening, even if it's not terribly substantial (which it usually isn't to people like us, who read everything out there, and less than once a month are actually excited by something that we find in the middle of one sentence),  because that's what they're there for: to keep you (for the most part) in the know.  Until, that is, they are foced to offer you predictions of what they think is going to happen.  This is when these "reporters" become "idiots". 

Poor Peter King, he watches the Pats, Jets, and Giants, sometimes the Eagles, and because he works on the set of "NBC Football Night in WhatevertheHell that obnoxious Studio Show with Cool Graphics and Bob Costas for no good reason in America", he watches whatever that game is.  Then, CNNSI.com asks him who's gonna win the Broncos v. Oakland game.  He's guessing.  He's guessing like me guessing a buddy's wife's weight while my buddy's right there waiting for me to make a mistake and piss everyone off.  It's a lose-lose situation.  The only thing he can do to mitigate his ignorance is to really try and accurately guess what the score and winners will be based solely upon the small handful of Raiders and/or Broncos games he's seen over the past 24 months, consider the roster moves he's even heard of, and consider what coach likes or doesn't based upon who he's interviewed in the past.  His guess is boring, conservative, and typically, isn't too far off from the Vegas lines in the back of his Newark Star Ledger.  The problem with this is that readers like you and I are clamoring for any and all information about our teams. Once we get the information we gorge ourselves on it and then complain about the stomach ache.  Thing is, we know our stuff better than he does, and he knows it.

My axe to grind is with anyone considered an "analyst".  This constitutes anyone working for Scouts Inc., anyone who does "power rankings", and anyone on any website or TV show who is the "guru" (TSG, this does NOT include you) or who attempts to analyze all 16 games every week from any position other than simple gameplanning analysis (Jaworski, who's EDGE NFL Matchup is grossly underrated). They do what Peter King does when they have to guess on games and outcomes, but the difference is that deducting who will win and predicting who will do  what and when is actually their actual job.  They are NOT "reporters".  They are SUPPOSED to know that Denver has been using bunch sets and that Oakland can't pass the ball.  They're supposed to know that Denver's been bottling up the run in preseason on defense and setting up the run with the pass.  They're supposed to have better "analysis" than "The only known commodity is Cutler, but he will be without his best receiver".  Come ON!  Tell me that Cutler's gonna suck because Darrell Jackson's washed up or that Brandon Stokely is too fast for the Oakland safties.  Tell me that Denver will need to put a nickelback on field just to watch McFadden on passing downs because Boss Bailey's still hurt.  They're not supposed to say:

 "This will be a physical game as each team tries to enforce its will early. However, there are a lot of questions entering this game. We really don't know the identity of either offense and we don't know how they will perform now that the games count. Both of these defenses were awful versus the run a year ago, which is a concern considering both offenses want to run first and pass second. The only known commodity is Cutler, but he will be without his best receiver. Oakland will play it close to the vest with its own talented young QB and in a close, low-scoring game, Russell will limit mistakes and let his backs to the heavy lifting as the Raiders upset the Broncos."

-Gary Horton (Scouts Inc. - presented by ESPN.com)

That has about as much substance as a politician being asked to talk about a bond issue that he or she doesn't know much about.  Hell, at least Peter King says that Cutler's gonna throw 3 TD's, that's about all he says, but at least its better than this greyish-blue waffle that Gary Horton and Scoutsinc are passing off as analysis.

Re-read that quote.  There's no analysis in there.  This guy told me that:

1) The defenses were bad last year and because they were bad, it is a concern.  It is a concern because both offenses are run first offenses.  WHAT!!!!???  What the hell does that mean!?  

2) Oakland's not gonna throw much.  They like to run.  Wow.  Thanks.  Why,why is thier passing game so bad?

3) Cutler is the only known (known by YOU, Gary? or known to other people in your office?) commodity on the field.  Not any of the corners on either side?  None of the Tight Ends?   Hmm.

4) Cutler won't have his best receiver, and that's NOT great.

5) And finally,my favorite part: "We really don't know the identity of either offense and we don't know how they will perform".  Isn't it your JOB to know????

I can't believe I pay for Insider.

I know I pick on this one article a lot, but its indicative of just about every "Analyst" article I've read this week.  In the end, maybe I'm just venting, but if it wasn't for analysis here at MHR.com, I think I'd be on the ledge of my office building trying to jump off and land on Bernie Lincicome.  Really, I just want someone who KNOWS WHAT THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT to get a job as an "analyst" and then I'll be happier paying for cable and internet and the newspaper and all of the fricking bland sports magazines that I subscribe to.  Oh yeah, and don't tell me that these guys are writing to the "everyman" who doesn't know much about the game anyway, because the "everyman" isn't up at 12:47am on a Wednesday night reading ESPN Insider and Scout's Inc projections.  Even the fantasy football projections are rediculous.  Who believes this crap!

If you want to read projections of players or games, open up a blank MS Word document and write one down.  Save it.  Email it to yourself, and viola! you'll get to read something insightful right there in your inbox.

Good day and go Broncos.

I thought this would get our mental juices flowing.  What do you guys (and gals) think we'll see on Monday night? I'm just throwing this out there.  Any chance Denver allows 20 points?

What are your predictions?

I look for Denver to get out of the gate early.  Shanny really has his boys play well when he holds a big grudge, especially against Oakland. Kiffin's not going to surprise anyone this season and with so many new guys, I  don't think he's even sure what he has.

Without Marshall, I assuming that Denver will throw more short to mid routes tobacks and TE's.  I also have to think, from what I've seen, that Darrell Jackson won't be going any deeper than 10 yards on a route.   Cutler, Bates, and Shanny probably have some new sets and a lot of shotgun ready for the Raiders Db's.

Oakland's a little soft versus the run, and I think Denver will mix the run and pass well on the first drives of the game.  This is my conservative thought on how Monday night might turn out.  My non-conservative prediction looks more like 34-16...but that's another story... 

I very rarely even bring up another team on this site, but I wanted to see if anyone on MHR had the same feeling that I have about the Bolts this year.

Now there's no question about thier talent level. 

Tomlinson, when healthy, isn't just the best player in the NFL, he's one of the best backs in its history (IMO).  Anytime a back dominates as consistently as he has, more focus should be on the offensive line, because they are part of the reason for his dominance.  Rivers, although utterly unlikeable (at least a mile above sea level), has proven to be capable, but not exceptional. The defense, however, has been exceptional and consistent.

HOWEVER...

Tomlinson's been beaten up.  He couldn't participate in the Chargers' bigegst game since Super Bowl XXIX.  He has carried the ballmore in the past  6 seasons  than any other back, and has taken more punishment because of his workload than any other back in that time period.  He tore his MCL last year.  He did not undergo surgery.  He has been nursing a nagging groin this preseason.  But he doesn't seem to be affected, at this point, by his recent injuries, but with the workload that he's seen, how much longer can he go, and howmuch longer can he avoid a season with a handful of missed games.

Rivers tore his ACL last January.  He had surgery to repair it.  He hasn't missed many practices this training camp and preseason.  Last year he was very up and very down.  His yardage, TDs, and rating all nosedived and his INTs increased in 2007.  Can he even replicate his 2007 numbers, which, by no means were "great" coming off of ACL surgery?  He even alludes to the fact that if he took a bad hit on his knee that it would affect hismindset during a game since the surgery. 

Antonio Gates has been so inconsistently healthy, that last season, some wondered if he'd ever be back to where he was just a few short seasons ago.  His nagging toe injuries cost him a chance to contribute in the 2008 offseason until just 1 week ago today.

The defense is returning almost all of last year's names for this season, but its the biggest name on the defense that has the biggest question mark next to it in 2008.   Shawne Merriman has been a one man wrecking crew for the past few seasons.  But he has two torn knee ligaments and has decided, against four doctor's opinions, that he will play the 2008 season and undergo surgery after the season.  He has also worn his relationship with the Chargers organization thin.  AJ Smith has been quoted as saying that Merriman should spend less time with his personal commitments ans more time on his team commitment.

Asked yesterday how he felt about Merriman’s latest venture, wherein the linebacker will fly from San Diego to Los Angeles after practice each Thursday and tape a show about the NFL on Fox Sports Net, Smith said this:

“My feeling about any of his off-the-field activities will be between me and Shawne. Shawne has many, many activities off the field, and that’s his business, along with his agents, marketing people, publicist and business partners. My only hope is that he remembers his high-level football performance is what drives his off-the-field attraction.”

Now, maybe Smith is playing the part of the overbearing father, but it's no secret that Merriman is a volatile guy in the locker room.

The Chargers are bigger than a few players, but I use them as examples because they are likely the Chargers' four most recognizeable players and each of them has a swirl of injuries around them going into 2008 and I didn't even bring up Jamal Williams, the run stuffing DT that has been spelling diaster for Denver RBs for the last two seasons (he's another of the 12 Chargers that had surgery this offseason).

I'm not attacking the Chargers, I am simply stating that it is reasonable to assume that they will not perform as they have in past seasons considering their four marquee players all have recent injury concerns to deal with.  I am aware that the Chargers offensive line, cornerbacks, and assorted linebackers and defensive linemen are not just standouts, but Pro-Bowlers, but let's call this what it is: concerning for a Chargers fan.

I am in no way saying that the Broncos are going to win the AFC West, I am simply stating that San Diego has more negative intrigue entering this season than they have an any of the past 3 or 4 seasons.  

I would be very interested to see what guys like DaBolts are thinking about their boys going into the season.  I want to know if they think the Chargers are as far ahead of the rest of the AFC West as they were last year.  I also want to see if they think Denver has tightened the gap with San Diego this offseason.  Lastly, I am curious if they think that the Chargers will dispatch the Broncos with the relative ease in which they did in 2007.

If a Denver's better than advertised and the Bolts get out of the gates slowly, could the AFC West be a dogfight in 2008?  You judge for yourself, you surely won't let ESPN or CNNSI or anyone in the national or local media decide fore you.

Who would you rather have:

Cutler or Rivers (if I don't have anything nice to say, I shouldn't say it)

Marshall, Stokely, and Royal or Jackson, Chambers, and anyone else (closer than you think because Royal's a rookie. But with Stokely and Marshall, I take Denver every time. Marshall is the best AFC West WR by far)

Scheffler or Gates (closer than you think but leaning towards Gates)

Young and Hall or Tomlinson (not close)

Merriman or Dumervil (closer than you think and if you look at injury, I take Elvis)

Castillo or DJ Williams (close, IMO)

Cromartie or Champ Bailey (Bailey's 2007 wasn't great, but I'd take him)

Jammer or Bly (I might take Jammer)

Broncos O-Line or Bolts O-Line (duh, Botls, although Denver's youth is encouraging)

D-Rob or Jamal Williams (Jamal)

Coach Shanny or Norv (Norv did well last year, but, like any coach, you MUST look at the BODY OF WORK - I'd be worried about Norv as a Bolts fan)

Talk amongst yourselves.....

*Running Game*

Hillis played with the 1st teamers in parts the second drive, and looked very good on a drive that featured the running game.  He came out of the game on a 3rd down run later in the drive, in favor of Cecil Sapp. Both Hall and Young got carries inside and outside.  Denver twice ran their play-action/misdirection pitch play where Cutler fakes to a FB running a dive and flips it to a RB sprinting towards the flat that they featured in the Chicago game last season.  The play was successful both times.  Denver also ran a delay out of shotgun/4 wides that looked good.  Andre Hall ran with what looks like ample confidence and authority when running between the tackles breaking behind the LBs a few times. Hall also looked good taking a pass from Cutler that was caught in the left flat back up field and into traffic, converting the pass into another 1st down.  Selvin Young also looked confient getting to the corner and turning upfield.

*Passing Game*

Cutler overthrew Stokely twice on the first drive, the first on a deep comeback that would have been a first down (although Cutler could have run for a first down too), and after the play it looked like Cutler and Stokely were signalling to each other that one of them had miscommunicated with the other.  The second was a broken play where Cutler scrambled towards the LOS and dumped the pass over Stokely who was just yards away and covered but had plenty of room to run towards the endzone.  Cutler fluttered the ball just over Stokely's head, not sure if it was an attempt to lead Stokely away from the defender and towards the endzone or just a slight overthrow.  The first play of the game was an overthrow deep down the right sideline towards Nate Jackson, but it looked to me like Cutler threw it away, as nobody was open on the play.  On the first play of the second drive, Cutler overthrew Scheffler from their own endzone on a flare out route. Cutler's incompletions to Selvin Young (1st drive) and Eddie Royal (2nd drive) should have been caught.

*Third Downs*

"Lots of guys can play quarterback in the NFL on first and second downs," Elway told Cutler, "but you get paid for converting third downs."- quote from an interview with Elway about what he spoke to Cutler about.

Cutler was phenomenal on third downs. 3 for 4 (1 for 2 on the opening drive), completing short (Hillis), middle (Jackson), and deep (Marshall) passes for 1st downs.  The  lone incompletion was on a slant to Selvin Young, which Young dropped, but likely wouldn't have had the distance for a first down.

Denver converted their 3rd downs running as well as passing on the second drive.  They had three 3rd and short runs, all netting first downs.  Both Hall and Young converted those runs.

*Notes*

Cutler has his rifle out, throwing many passes with trademark velocity, including his TD pass to Nate Jackson.  Cutler's TD connection with Brandon Marshall was simply a play where Jay and Brandon realized that Brandon was to be single covered for the 2nd play in a row.  Cutler threw the ball deep down the left side of the field and hit Marshall in stride and being covered fairly closely, but not closely enough to knock the pass away although Marshall did bobble the pass before controlling it at about the 2 yard line. 

Denver missed an opportunity last week vs. Dallas to capitalize on a 2 minute drill when Prater missed a FG.  This week though, Denver took over at their own 20 with 1:41 left in the first half.  They had a TD in 2 plays, both passes to Marshall, although Marshall didn't catch the first one due to a pass interference call.  The second was a 49 yard pass that resulted in the TD to Marshall.  They went 80 yards in 2 plays in 16 seconds.

Cutler was hurried a few times but still has not been sacked in the 2008 preseason.

A cbs4.com article today had 1 paragraph that I've been looking high and low for over the last 10 years.

Plummer never said anything like this.  Griese never did either.  The last time I heard a QB talking about trading ideas about offensive strategy and play calling was when Elway used to talk about going back and forth with Shanny about stuff like this.

Me And My Coach: Cutler said his relationship with quarterbacks coach Jeremy Bates hasn't always been rosy.

"We bump heads a little bit. That's to be expected," said Cutler. "But a couple hours later or the next day we are back in the grind."

Cutler said there were two sides to Bates. On one side he sees an intense, fiery coach that displays a passion for football in the meeting room and on the field.

"He's flexible," Cutler said of the other side of Bates. "If I've got an idea, I ask him about it, I talk to him about it and if he likes it and if we can agree upon it, we put it in.

This is the best news that I've seen as it realtes to NEW ideason the offensive side of the ball. 

Think back to 1996-1998.  Remember Elway would call timeout and wobble over to Shanahan.  As the game returned from commercial, the camera would be fixed on Elway and Shanahan, typically sharing some sort of smirk and nodding their heads in approival.  Elway would return to the game and over the course of the next 3 or 4 plays, would look like he knew not only what the defense was thinking but what the defense THOUGHT the offense was thinking. 

That was one of my favorite parts of those teams: The level of understanding and harmony in the playcalling and the idea of both players and coaches who are on the cutting edge of playcalling and strategy.  That little quote in today's article got me all excited that maybe that's coming back...